Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Ranking the Boston Sports Team GM's

As Boston sports fans, we are very fortunate to currently have highly competent management teams running our pro sports organizations. Long gone are the days when the likes of Dan Duquette, Sam Jankovich, Rick Pitino, and Mike O'Connell caused local sports fans to gnash their teeth in anger. Dan Duquette quite possibly was the one primarily responsible for WEEI's ratings going into the stratosphere with his questionable baseball decisions. Fans would call The Big Show, looking for a place to vent their frustration at the mediocrity of the mid-late 1990's Boston Red Sox.

Due to three of the four teams winning championships over the last decade, ranking the GM's isn't exactly an easy task. As with any GM, there are some decisions that worked, and others that didn't work. Regardless of the ranking, all four of the GM's are doing a fine job with their respective teams.

1.) Theo Epstein - When then 28 year old Theo Epstein was named Red Sox GM in 2003, there was a lot of snickering from the cynical media and fans, who were in the midst of an 85 year drought since the last World Series championship. Seven years and two World Series Championships later, anyone who questions Epstein's tenure and success, should have their head examined. The Boston Red Sox were named The Sporting News Baseball Team of the Decade and Theo Epstein was named Baseball Executive of the Decade in December 2009. Here's why:

What Worked:
  • After years of a farm system that was barren during the Dan Duquette era, Theo Epstein turned the Red Sox farm system into a player development machine, particularly for pitching. Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buchholz, David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson, and Daniel Bard are all quality major leaguers drafted by Theo Epstein.
  • Signing David Ortiz as a free agent in 2003. The Greatest Clutch Hitter in Red Sox history.
  • Signing Mike Timlin as a free agent in 2003. Mike Timlin is the most underrated Epstein acquisition. He was a stalwart in the Red Sox bullpen, providing the late inning bridge to the 9th inning for years, until Father Time caught up to him in 2008.
  • The trade in November 2003 for Curt Schilling for Brandon Lyon and three minor leaguers.
  • 2004 season - Signing Keith Foulke to be the closer. Hiring Terry Francona to manage the Red Sox. The 2004 trade deadline deal of Nomar Garciaparra and the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera, Dave Roberts, and Doug Mientkewicz.
  • Signing Hideki Okajima in 2007.
  • Trading for Victor Martinez in 2009.
  • Signing Adrian Beltre as a free agent in 2010.

What Didn't Work:
  • Signing Matt Clement and Edgar Renteria as free agents for 2005. Neither was cut out for the intense Boston atmosphere.
  • Drafting RP Craig Hansen in the first round in 2005. Once he reached the majors, Hansen's vaunted slider betrayed him. He was traded to Pittsburgh in 2008 as part of a package for Jason Bay.
  • Trading Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati in the spring of 2006 for Wily Mo Pena. The Red Sox wound up short of starting pitching due to injuries that summer. The Red Sox were forced to start career stiffs like Kevin Jarvis and Jason Johnson during the pennant race.
  • Theo whiffed badly by signing Julio Lugo as a free agent in 2007 to a 4 year $40 million contract. Lugo's tenure was a dreadful one at SS in Boston.
  • Inability to develop power in the minor league system. The Red Sox first round pick in 2006, OF Jason Place, has been a major bust in the minor leagues. They drafted Place due to his power potential.
One of Epstein's best traits is his ability to admit a mistake. In the cases of Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo, Epstein was able to trade them away to other teams, albeit with the Red Sox eating a portion of their salaries.

NOTE - Theo Epstein was not the GM in 2005, when the trade for Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett was made. He was on his sabbatical at that time.


2.) Bill Belichick - When Bill Belichick took over the Patriots in 2000, the team was on the downside. After the departure of Bill Parcells following Super Bowl XXXI, the Patriots started a 3 year slide under the Pete Carroll/Bobby Grier era getting progressively worse each season. In his second season as Patriots Coach/GM, the Patriots shocked the sporting world by defeating the heavily favored Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. The Patriots also won Super Bowl XXXVIII and Super Bowl XXXIX, bringing the NFL its first dynasty since the 1990's Dallas Cowboys. Until 2009, Bill Belichick worked in concert with Director of Player Personnel Scott Pioli on Patriots player acquisitions. Due to Belichick's notorious secrecy regarding the team operations, it is unclear as to how much credit goes to Pioli compared to Belichick. However, Belichick does have final say on personnel matters.

What Worked:
  • Drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round of the 2000 draft. Sometimes you have to be lucky!
  • 2001 free agency - everything Belichick/Pioli touched turned to gold - Mike Vrabel, Antowain Smith, Roman Phifer, Bryan Cox, David Patten, Mike Compton, and Anthony Pleasant.
  • The draft - Richard Seymour and Matt Light in the 2001 draft. Daniel Graham, Deion Branch, and David Givens in the 2002 draft. Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, and Asante Samuel in the 2003 draft. Vince Wilfork in the 2004 draft. Logan Mankins and Matt Cassel in 2005. Stephen Gostkowski in 2006. Jerod Mayo in 2008.
  • Signing Rodney Harrison as a free agent in 2003.
  • Trading for Corey Dillon in 2004 and for Randy Moss in 2007.
  • Trading for Wes Welker in 2007.

What Didn't Work:
  • Signing WR Donald Hayes in 2002.
  • Missing with 2nd round picks in the draft - Bethel Johnson, Marquise Hill, Chad Jackson, Terrence Wheatley. Last year's 2nd rounder Ron Brace appears headed for Bust-ville, as well.
  • Most of the drafts since 2005, have been bereft of impact players.
  • Free agent signing of Adalius Thomas in 2007, proved to be a bust.
  • Other than Sebastian Vollmer, not upgrading the OL from the same five starters who were manhandled in the Super Bowl loss to the NY Giants, destroying up to that point, an 18-0 season.
  • The Duane Starks and Antonio Langham debacles in the secondary.
Unlike Epstein, Belichick isn't one to easily admit a mistake. He kept Benjamin Watson around for too long. It is also perplexing how underachieving RB Laurence Maroney is still listed as the starting RB.


3.) Danny Ainge - Ainge was hired in 2003 as Executive Director of Basketball Operations and proceeded to dismantle a mediocre Celtics team that had made some noise in the playoffs the previous season. The Celtics took the proverbial "step back", with Ainge making some shrewd choices in the draft, as the team played terrible basketball. This culminated in 2007, with the Ray Allen trade and then the blockbuster deal of Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes as part of a package to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett. The 2007-2008, Boston Celtics won their first World Championship since 1986. The Garnett-less Celtics gutted out two playoff series in 2008-2009, and lost Game Seven of the NBA Championship to the Lakers in 2009-2010.

What Worked:
  • Danny Ainge is a great evaluator of young collegiate and high school talent. Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Ryan Gomes, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Rajon Rondo, Glen Davis, and Leon Powe were all picks made during Ainge's tenure as GM. All have been solid to excellent NBA players.
  • Trading for Ray Allen and the pick that brought Glen Davis in 2007.
  • Signing high quality, high character veteran bench players James Posey, Eddie House, and P.J. Brown in 2007-08.
  • The blockbuster trade for Garnett, who changed the entire culture of the team to an unselfish, defense oriented group.
  • Signing Doc Rivers to coach.

What Didn't Work:
  • Signing C Mark Blount to a long term deal. Blount was a dog who stopped playing hard after he got his big contract. He also had the worst hands of any Celtic player in recent memory.
  • Missing on first round draft picks Marcus Banks and Gerald Green.
  • Trading Randy Foye in a package for Sebastian Telfair, so that Telfair could be the starting point guard.
  • Not re-signing James Posey after the 2007-08 season.
  • Acquiring big men Patrick O'Bryant and Mikki Moore in 2008-09.

4.) Peter Chiarelli - The Boston Bruins were mired in a decade of mediocrity, when finally the Harry Sinden/Mike O'Connell/Jeff Gorton group was removed in 2006, and Peter Chiarelli was hired from the Ottawa Senators to be GM. Chiarelli immediately put his stamp on the team by signing D Zdeno Chara and C Marc Savard in the early dawn of that free agent season. Alas, the Boston Bruins still haven't won a Stanley Cup since 1972, and in 2010, blew a 3-0 playoff series lead. This series wound up ending in an embarrassing loss to the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 7.

What Worked:
  • Signing free agents Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard in 2006.
  • Trading Phil Kessel to Toronto for the Leafs' 1st and 2nd round picks in 2010 and the Leafs 1st round pick in 2011. The Bruins wound up with the 2nd pick in the entire draft and selected C Tyler Seguin.
  • Hiring Claude Julien to be head coach in 2007. Julien was exactly what the Bruins needed at the time of his hire and despite heavy criticism during the 2009-10 season, has overall done a solid job.
  • Trading for Chuck Kobasew - he was a solid performer potting over 20 goals in his first 2 full seasons, until he was traded in 2009.
  • Acquiring steady defenseman Aaron Ward from the Rangers for Paul Mara in 2007. Ward was a key contributor for the Bruins before being traded before the 2009-2010 offseason.

What Didn't Work:
  • Hiring Dave Lewis to coach the 2006-2007 team. Lewis was overmatched in his only season as head coach.
  • Trading Brad Boyes for D Dennis Wideman - Boyes was in the midst of a scoring slump when he was traded to St. Louis. As a member of the Blues, Boyes scored 43 and 33 goals in his first 2 full seasons with the team. Wideman was a reckless player, who didn't take care of the puck in his own end.
  • Drafting Phil Kessel in 2007 with the 5th overall pick in the draft. Kessel is a fast skater and has a deft scoring touch. However, he's allergic to defense and is a soft player, who can easily be taken out of his game by physical play.
  • Not addressing the team's lack of scoring punch after the trade of Kessel. During the regular season of 2009-2010, the Boston Bruins struggled to score goals.
  • Chiarelli has yet to draft an impact player for the Bruins, since his tenure as GM began.

Based upon the above analysis, you can see that no GM bats 1.000 when it comes to personnel moves. The best GM's are the ones who know how to tweak their teams each year and add significant value to the teams via the draft. Other than Chiarelli, the GM's in Boston have been very successful in this regard. Here's hoping for the Bruins, youngsters like Zach Hamill and Tyler Seguin can be those draftees who can make a large impact.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Cynicism regarding the Patriots

Some Pats related items:

I'm so cynical about the Pats chances this upcoming season, I gave up my season tickets for 2010. I finally stopped drinking the Belichick Kool Aid last year. Febraury 2005 was the last Super Bowl victory. Some of Belichick's personnel decisions are quite dubious. He felt the need to cut Shawn Crable, who's been very injury prone, but who may or may not help solve the team's biggest weakness - the pass rush. Belichick cut him the day before training camp. Now, pass rushing specialist (and I'm being very charitable with that description) Derrick Burgess may retire. Great roster management, Coach. Why axe Crable, yet he keeps stiffs like Pierre Woods, Gary Guyton and Eric Alexander around for years - none of whom do anything on the field? Second, how about ensuring that everyone's shown up to camp before trying to be a tough guy and that injuries won't be tolerated?

Also, Belichick has neglected the RB and OL positions. Other than Sebastian Vollmer, the group up front are the same bums who got mauled in the Super Bowl vs. the NY Giants. Pro Bowl G Logan Mankins is holding out for a contract, so he's not there. Nick Kaczur is now playing left guard. Kaczur was a turnstile when he played last season and lost his starting RT job to Vollmer.

Are the Patriots really going with Maroney, Taylor, and Morris at RB again? Maroney is a bigger bust than Ben Watson was. Both first round picks turned out to have great athletic skills, but no football ability.

Tom Brady is a fool for showing up to camp. No player in the NFL has ever had more leverage in salary negotiations. If the Krafts can afford that empty monstrosity known as Patriot Place, they can afford to pay Brady as one of the top 3 salaries in the league. What wil Coach Bill do, go with Hoyer at QB? Enjoy the 5-11 season and the empty stadium, Krafts. Yet there's Brady at camp, trying to be a good soldier. News flash Tommy, you get hurt, you aren't going to get paid the way you should.

Also, how about Brady standing up for his union brethren and making the Pats pay him? The NFL chews these guys up and spits them out. Many are cripples when they get older and they have the worst pension system of any pro sports. Brady should be holding out and thinking of how his salary helps backup OL's and special teams players over the long haul.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

June is here

The Boston Red Sox are one team in baseball that didn't want the calendar to keep moving forward. Despite the team struggling to get going in April, the Boston Red Sox really started to hit their stride in May, running off a strong 8-2 streak against the Yankees, Twins, Phillies, and Rays. This stretch of play brought them back into the AL East race, where they sit 5 games back of the AL East leading Rays, and 2.5 games out of the Wild Card race.

Strong starting pitching has been the key to the team's resurgence. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have led the way, and both have been two of the best pitchers in the AL this season. However, there still is too much inconsistency from the other three starters. The Red Sox need Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield to step up and pitch better. Both are sporting ERA's just south of 6.00.

Wakefield is filling in for the injured Josh Beckett for now, and the Red Sox are fortunate to have six legitimate starting pitchers. Wakefield may not like being in the swingman role, but he's made for it, particularly at age 43, where his body has shown over the last several seasons that it can't hold up for 30 starts. Due to the flexibility that Wakefield brings to the staff, the Sox are wisely proceeding slowly with Beckett's back injury. Beckett has pitched poorly so far this year, and despite his desire to get back quickly and get rolling again, he's a key component to the pitching staff. Rushing him back and having him re-aggravate his injury is not the way to go. The best thing for Beckett, when he's ready to pitch again, is to go to Portland and Pawtucket and pitch one rehab start in each location. That will allow him to test out his back, as well as work on a few things with his delivery that have contributed to his poor start this season.

The one concern with the team is its bullpen. Other than Bard and Papelbon, no one has proven to be reliable. Manny Delcarmen's numbers look good, but he's gotten himself into some jams that he's managed to escape.

On offense, the story of May was the return to form of David Ortiz. After a hideous April, where there were whispers of a possible release of Ortiz, Big Papi batted .363 with 10 HR and 27 RBI. . When Ortiz is rolling, that's when the offense goes from being mediocre, to above average.

Unfortunately, the Red Sox are missing the element of speed with the continued inability of Jacoby Ellsbury to get on the field. I think the team's being a little unfair with their frustration of Ellsbury's injury to heal. He fractured ribs, it's going to take time for him to return to his play with abandon style. I don't doubt that it's really bothering him and with a rib injury, he'll hesitate when it comes to diving for balls in the outfield and sliding head first. He obviously came back to early from the injury, because he didn't look good at the plate, either.

The team has a stretch of games coming up in which they should really put the pedal to the floor. Games against Oakland, Cleveland, and Baltimore are the games the Sox need to win and keep putting pressure on the Wild Card leading Yankees and Rays.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

3-0 Celtics

It looks like the Boston Celtics will certainly be moving on to the NBA finals after completely dismantling the Orlando Magic last night, 94-71. Once again, the story was Rajon Rondo. Despite only shooting 4-13 from the field, Rondo made two absolutely jaw dropping plays - one where he faked out Marcin Gortat to lay it in and the other when he outhustled Jason Williams for a loose ball to grab it and lay it in.

Despite how fantastic both plays were, they also showed the difference in the energy level, as well as the effort level of both teams. No way should Gortat have allowed Rondo to just blow by him without at least a hard foul. Also, White Chocolate (Williams) had 2-3 steps on Rondo. Not only did Rondo beat him to the ball, but Williams also played poor defense in allowing Rondo to lay it in.

The Magic stars just are not stepping up in this series. Rashard Lewis belongs on the side of a milk carton. He's been missing the entire series. Kevin Garnett has eaten him for dinner this whole series. Last night Lewis made an attempt to take The Big Ticket to the hole. Big mistake. Garnett swatted the shot attempt away.

The series has been a combination of the Celtics playing their best basketball, particularly on defense, and the Magic being gawdawful.

The Magic have seemingly tuned out coach Stan Van Gundy. If the Celtics complete the sweep, how can Orlando bring Van Gundy back to coach the team. When you see the huddle, the Magic players are not even looking at him, basically ignoring him.

As a Celtics fan, these last two series vs. Cleveland and Orlando have been super fun to watch. I anticipate it continuing in the NBA Finals. Five more victories left for banner #18.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Monday Morning Celtics

A Bruins free zone...

During the last few months of the regular season, the Celtics played awful basketball. Anytime the thought was floated that the Celtics could flip a switch and turn it on for the playoffs, it was dismissed by "experts" as not the case with this team. Guess what, after a listless regular season, they've put their foot down on the gas pedal and are now up 1-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals over Orlando. What has been the difference? Two things - the return of Kevin Garnett as a healthy impact basketball player and the commitment to defense.

In yesterday's game, the Celtics suffocated the life out of the Magic with tough, physical defense. Yes, Orlando made a run at the end of the game and cut what was once a 20 point lead to 2, but almost doesn't count. It wasn't a pretty game, but it all counts the same in the score book.

Besides the great defense, what surprised me most was only 2 Celtic starters, plus Rasheed Wallace scored double figures. Rajon Rondo was quiet and Kevin Garnett didn't have a good shooting game. Give credit to Orlando, they are a good defensive team as well. They held the Celtics scoreless for over 5 minutes as they made their 4th quarter run. Looks like we are in for some 83-78 type games this series.

Tony Allen continues to provide strong contributions off the bench. He's really stepping up and being the bench player Danny Ainge envisioned 2 years ago, when he let James Posey leave for New Orleans. Tony Allen has become a lock down defender, plus he is an excellent finisher, filling the lanes on the fast break. No longer is he the out of control player, prone to turnovers against good teams. He's playing within himself and not trying to do too much.

Five weeks ago, ESPN columnist and Celtics superfan Bill Simmons wrote a scathing column criticizing Rasheed Wallace describing him as "my least favorite Celtic ever". After a season and a playoff series of mailing it in, Sheed finally started turning it on in the last two games of the Cavaliers series. He's playing with passion and contributing some timely 3 point shots. He still is allergic to rebounding, but he's bringing some presence on defense.

If the rumors are true of coach Doc Rivers planning on leaving at the end of the season, it would only make sense for assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to be escalated to head coach. Thibodeau may be the best defensive coach in the NBA.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Another Yankee Series

It's early May and the Red Sox are already facing the New York Yankees for a second time. Ho hum. Remember when Yankees-Red Sox series used to mean something?

That being said, the inconsistent Red Sox, coming off a sweep of the Angels, will have their hands full with the Bronx Bombers. The weakness of this year's Red Sox is they can't hit good pitching. They'll be up against the Yankees' three best starters - Phil Hughes, CC Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett. Hughes, in particular, has been terrific. He's finally meeting the potential that was projected for him a few years ago when he was one of the hottest pitching prospects in baseball.

After getting swept by the Baltimore Orioles, the Red Sox played very well vs. the Angels and even overcame an erratic Daisuke Matsuzaka performance (is there any other kind of Dice-K performance?)) to come from behind and complete the series sweep.

The Red Sox will be pitching Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester in this series. Tonight's game is very important for Beckett to continue getting back on track. It would be good if Beckett can rediscover his curveball to compliment his 4-seamer and 2-seamer. The Red Sox need him to be the #1 starter. One concern about Beckett is his stubbornness. Despite throwing 96 mph, he's not a strikeout pitcher. Beckett throws a lot of pitches due to what seems to be a desire by him to pile up the K's. He should look to pitch to contact more, like John Lackey, and let his defense do the work.

As a team, the Yankees are hitting .276 - despite Nick Johnson and Mark Teixiera both still hitting under .200. Second baseman Robinson Cano has been the AL MVP, thus far. Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada still refuse to get old - both of them hitting well, as usual.

A key to this series will be keeping LF Brett Gardner (who?) off base. Gardner has a .430 OBP and has 13 steals already.

This series will be a good test for the Red Sox - are they an 85 win team or are they Wild Card contenders? It would be nice to see the Sox take 2 of 3 and put a small dent into the Yankees Wild Card.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Red Sox Struggles

There's an old Paul McCartney solo song called, "Junk", that refers to "junk in the yard". That is the song I was singing to myself as I watched the Red Sox get swept yesterday by the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Right now, the Red Sox are junk in the (ball) yard.

Nothing is going right for the local nine. Being a boring team to watch is only a small part of the problem. The larger scale issues are the pitching has been terrible, the defense has underachieved, and the offense still cannot hit good pitching. The offense's struggles don't surprise me, because they couldn't hit good pitching last season, either. Manager Terry Francona's game management has been very questionable as well. At 105 pitches, Josh Beckett should've gone out to the mound to start the 8th inning. In a tie game, why is Francona bringing in Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon, when both have been overworked so far this young season? Granted the bullpen has been leaky, but at some point, Francona is going to need to trust Scott Schoeneweis and Ramon Ramirez in a close game.

The cumulative ERA of the starters this season is an unsightly 4.96 However, Daisuke Matsuzaka is back from injury and Saturday's 5th inning meltdown aside, he should help strengthen the starting rotation. Josh Beckett's outing yesterday was encouraging. Even though his curveball was MIA, Beckett allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings, albeit against the Orioles. For all the talk show chatter about Clay Buchholz being a trading chip, he's been the team's best starter since last August. Buchholz should be untouchable in any trade discussion. John Lackey and Jon Lester both look to be coming around, as well. Despite the controversy of the move of Tim Wakefield to the bullpen to make way for Dice K, it is the right move for the team.

The pitching and defense should stabilize, it's the offense that is most concerning. The Red Sox badly miss Jacoby Ellsbury. He's the catalyst at the top of the lineup and with his absence, the lack of speed in the lineup is glaring. Does any team in baseball go station to station more than the Boston Red Sox? On a base hit to left field late in yesterday's game, Jason Varitek, trying to score from second base, was thrown out at the plate by ten feet. The Captain is 38 years old and it's not his fault he no longer has average foot speed, but as a team, the collective lack of athleticism is an issue. Mike Lowell has to be the slowest runner in baseball. David Ortiz isn't far behind Lowell.

Darnell McDonald has been a nice surprise since his call up from Pawtucket, but he's started to cool off and the more he plays, the more the holes in his game are exposed. He's a fifth outfielder at best. The same goes for Jonathan Van Every. McDonald and Van Every were two of the three starting outfielders for the Red Sox yesterday.

This team's biggest area of need is another slugging corner outfielder. Jason Bay filled that role last season, but he and his 36 HRs in 2009, are in New York now. There was hope that 3B Adrian Beltre would provide some thump from the right side, but so far, he's been nothing but a singles hitter. Ortiz can no longer catch up to a good fastball and unless he picks it up in the next three weeks, he is a candidate to be released - a scenario no one could have imagined three years ago. Victor Martinez has struggled so badly behind the plate, that it looks to be affecting his bat. Martinez's defensive struggles have Jason Varitek catching more than the team wants him out there. Varitek's bat has been the one of the few highlights of the season.

There doesn't seem to be any hope either in the farm system or externally via a trade. As the team continues to play poorly, the higher the price tag will be for a premium player in a trade. The off season talk was about the team acquiring 1B Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego. However, the Padres are off to a surprising start, leading the NL West by 1.5 games. Also, the Red Sox have a logjam at the 1B/3B/DH positions with Kevin Youkilis, Beltre, Ortiz, Lowell, and Martinez. Other than Youkilis, who's untouchable, none of them have any trade value right now. This current configuration doesn't exactly make for a flexible roster.

There has been much mockery in the media of the "run prevention" philosophy that was espoused this off season by Red Sox GM Theo Epstein. This mockery has escalated recently due to the pitching and the defense being a let down. However, the bats just aren't there. Even when Ellsbury and Mike Cameron come back, the offense still can be shut down. The Red Sox have two reliable run producers right now - Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia.

The Red Sox have over $162 million invested in the roster. There are too many old guys (Ortiz, Varitek, Cameron, and Lowell), under producers (Victor Martinez and J.D. Drew), and players masquerading as sluggers (Adrian Beltre). They have only one starting position player who can really run and put pressure on a defense - Ellsbury. He's on the disabled list. So much for the idea of manufacturing runs.

The team is hitting a mediocre .259 with runners in scoring position. By comparison, the AL East leading Tampa Bay Rays are hitting .323 with runners in scoring position. The offense hit 8 HR in this weekend series vs. the Orioles. Only one of these HR's (Kevin Youkilis - Saturday night - 2 run HR) had a man on base. Of the 33 HR hit by the Red Sox in 2010, 21 of them have been solo shots.

Will things change as the season progresses? I doubt it. If you can't hit against the Orioles, then you won't hit against the Yankees, Angels, and Rays. If you think it's bad this season, wait until next year, when the contracts of Ortiz, Martinez, Lowell, Beltre, and Varitek all expire. The team is very good at developing pitchers, but their minor league organization is bereft of any young sluggers, Lars Anderson's hot start aside. Given that situation, the offense has the potential to be even worse in 2011.

The Red Sox will eventually play better ball, fill Fenway Park to capacity most nights, and make a run for the Wild Card. However, this is a flawed team that is not built for playoff success. The roster balance just isn't there and unless Theo Epstein trades the team's prize minor league prospects like Casey Kelly, which he is wont to do, this won't change.