Thursday, March 19, 2009

The Dog Days of Spring Training

Some interesting news came out of Ft. Myers yesterday, where the Red Sox decided to release veteran catcher Josh Bard and go with rookie George Kottaras to be Jason Varitek's backup. This is a bold and risky move, particularly considering Varitek's obvious decline last season. I like the idea of the Red Sox developing a young catcher by putting him in the backup role and easing him into the mix. Kottaras hit 22 HR last year in the cozy confines of McCoy Stadium and the Red Sox brass seems enthusiastic about his progress defensively this spring. Here's hoping he can relax, not put too much pressure on himself and continue developing.

Veteran Pawsox player Jeff Bailey has been tattooing the ball in spring training. Despite his monster spring and his experience last year at the major league level, Bailey may not make the big club when spring training breaks. The problem with Bailey is the same with Chris Carter. Both could probably hit big league pitching, but both have gloves made of cement. They both play 1B and LF, and are below average defenders at both positions. While it is nice to have such depth in the minor leagues, it would be better for their careers if they were sent to a team such as Kansas City or Seattle where they could get some AB's at DH, 1B, or LF; something they won't get with Ortiz, Youkilis, and Bay ahead of them.

Other than Michael Bowden's struggles, the Red Sox young pitchers have certainly impressed this spring. Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Junichi Tazawa have all had excellent springs. I can't wait to get to some Pawsox games this spring to catch some of the younger players in action.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

NFL offseason bits

After reading the news yesterday that the Patriots are supposedly interested in acquiring Panthers DE Julius Peppers, I got a bit fired up about the thought of Peppers and Richard Seymour on one side and Ty Warren and Adalius Thomas on the other. In theory, such an alignment would mean it would be a track meet to the QB. Considering that a pass rush was sorely lacking last year, the idea of such studs on the defensive front seven is extremely appealing. Remember, it was the play of the NY Giants' front four that ultimately won the Super Bowl vs. the Patriots because they overwhelmed the offensive line.

By having DL's and LB's that can get to the QB quickly, it takes some pressure off the defensive backfield, which was unquestionably the Patriots' weakness last season. The Patriots have already made efforts to improve the secondary with the signings of Shawn Springs, Leigh Bodden, and the re-signing of Tank Williams, who missed all of last season with a knee injury.

I'd like to see the Patriots and Rodney Harrison come to an agreement where Rodney is on the Junior Seau speed dial plan. Because he plays such a physical game, Rodney can no longer handle the rigors of a potential 19 game NFL season. My ultimate plan would be for Rodney to lift weights with the team and be in a "coaching or advisory role", but to rejoin the team in a playing capacity sometime around December 8th. It would give him 3-4 games to get back to being in game shape, so that he'd be right in form for the playoffs.

Memo to Jay Cutler: GROW UP! It's professional sports. What have you ever won? The Denver Broncos have some of the best fans in the NFL and one of the best organizations in the league. Josh McDaniels' offensive scheme will be great for Cutler, if he opens his mind up and stops acting like a prima donna.

Who's going to play QB for the NY Jets?

Look for the Minnesota Vikings' offense to be improved. Sage Rosenfels isn't a superstar at QB, but he's certainly better than the overmatched Tarvaris Jackson, who was terrible in most of his games last year, as well as journeyman Gus Frerotte. Rosenfels will at least keep the Vikings offense from being one dimensional and give Adrian Peterson a break.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

The Importance of Rajon Rondo

Since last year, I've noticed a particular pattern with the World Champion Boston Celtics - the team goes as point guard Rajon Rondo goes. It's not the Big Three that matter most, it's Rondo.

Check out the team's losses this year, and you'll find that Rondo didn't play well or didn't play due to injury. Last year in the playoffs, the losses occured when he didn't bring his usual A game.

Last night's game was a prime example. Rondo didn't play due to injury. There just isn't a flow to the offense when Rondo's not bringing the ball up. Marbury tries and is going out of his way to try to distribute the ball, but the results just aren't there. Marbury is still rusty and I believe he will be an impact performer off the bench come playoff time.

The reason why Rondo is so good is due to his quickness. He creates havoc on the defensive end, and is 5th in the NBA in steals. He's also the best rebounding PG in the NBA. When he gets the ball in his hands, he bursts up the court and is immediately putting pressure on the defense. Rondo is a master at bringing the ball in the lane and dishing off to an open Garnett or Perkins for an easy dunk or layup.

Marbury and Eddie House do not have that quickness and neither is as good as Rondo defensively. At this point, Marbury is a liability defensively. He's trying hard, but is a step or two slow in chasing his man. Rondo, unless he is picked, doesn't have such difficulties.

For the Celtics to win, it's okay if Garnett misses a few games or Pierce goes through a 5-20 shooting night. As long as Rondo is there and playing well, the chances of victory are great

Friday, March 6, 2009

The Obama Stock Market

I've been wondering how all the people who voted for Obama feel now after watching their 401K values tank in value since Obama took office? Don't blame me, I didn't vote for him.

Back in the fall of 2007, on his show, "The GOP, the Economy, and You", CNBC analyst Lawrence Kudlow was positively prophetic when he proclaimed that the prospect of a Democratic presidency is very bearish for the markets. When it comes to economic growth and the markets, I tend to put more stock in what Kudlow and Jim Cramer say, as opposed to Democrats in the House and Senate such as Barney Frank and John Kerry, who've been Washington politicians since the 1980's. Kudlow and Cramer actually worked on Wall Street and know how the markets operate.

On 1/21/09, the day after Obama was inaugurated, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 8228.10. Today, 3/6/09, the Dow closed at 6626.94. Six weeks of market carnage due to the Obama policies and lack of action to help stabilize markets. How low can it go? Where's the bottom?

I'm already longing for the days of June 2008, when my 401K hadn't plunged, the Dow was at 12,300, and gas was $4.05 a gallon.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

The Proper Way to Fix the Economy

Yesterday, the Dow Jones slid almost 300 points to close at a horrifying 6764.81; a number not seen since 1997. Over the last six months, the federal government has frantically tried to keep the economy propped up by bailing out financial companies mired in bad mortgages. It’s not working. Over the winter, there have been millions of layoffs and these financial companies keep coming back to the federal government asking for more money. The markets currently have no confidence in the Obama Administration’s plans to fix the economy.

President Obama inherited quite a mess and since Inauguration Day, the economy has gotten worse. It is not entirely his fault. The Democratic majorities in the House and Senate passed a “stimulus” package that on the surface meant well, but the details showed that it was loaded with pork and items that will do nothing to stimulate the economy. The stimulus bill added hundreds of billions more in the federal government’s current budget deficit.

So, what do we do? How do we fix this broken down economy? Here’s one man’s idea to stimulate the economy.

1.) Eliminate the capital gains tax – if there is one “to do” that will help broken markets and large private corporations, it is eliminating the capital gains tax. Such a move would put money in motion. Eliminating the capital gains tax is often derided as a move to help rich people, but it is not just rich people who are in the markets these days. Capital gains tax cuts influence investment decisions. Eliminating the capital gains tax would send a serious message that the Obama Administration truly wants to fix the markets.

2.) A six month federal tax holiday – A six month federal tax holiday would’ve been cheaper than the stimulus bill passed by the House and Senate and signed by President Obama. Three things would happen if this were ever implemented: People would spend more money because they had more of it in their pocket. They could’ve put it in a savings account, which frankly – is that a BAD thing for people to focus on these days? Lastly, people could’ve taken the extra money and invested it 401Ks, Roth IRAs, and or stocks. Investing money in the stock market = increasing buy activity, which would raise the levels of the indexes! This certainly would be a lot more effective than any stimulus bill that could be passed.

3.) Enough with the utopian discussions about investments in green energy and fighting global warming. It’s not the time for it. What we need is to focus on the fundamentals; the broken sectors of the economy, not invest in potentially dubious technology. To put it in blackjack terms, I’d rather hold when I have a 16 and the dealer is starting with a 5, than trying to see if I can get a 5 and get to 21. It’s the better move.

4.) Send $3,000 rebate checks to every family. Hopefully, by doing this, it will help stave off a family defaulting on a mortgage or help pay some overdue bills and keep them afloat.

5.) Extend unemployment benefits for 6-9 months. Millions of people are out of work and it will take time for companies to start hiring again. The goal here is to keep people afloat and prevent further mortgage foreclosures.

6.) Enough with the bailouts. Other than AIG, which has its tentacles in many segments of the economy and could cause a severe negative impact (they are the largest insurers of planes – airlines would be grounded across the country if they failed). However, some banks need to fail. Why should poor performance and management be rewarded, when these banks show no signs of reform or turning around their performance?

I firmly believe these six steps would go a long way towards getting America moving again and getting those unfortunate to be laid off back to work. These moves will also help stimulate markets and get people focused on investing in 401K’s and looking forward to retirement again; which as of right now, seems like a pipe dream to most of us.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Massachusetts' Worthless Governor

I remember the fall of 2006 well. Back then, Deval Patrick's Massachusetts gubernatorial campaign was all the rage. Every day there were stories in the Boston Globe gushing about what a Patrick Administration would do for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. While offering few specifics, Patrick would dazzle crowds at campaign stops with his trademark feel good slogan, "Together We Can", promising how his property tax cut proposal would greatly benefit working familes.

Two and a half years later with the economy in shambles, Patrick's idea of helping working familes is to jack up the gas tax by $0.19 a gallon, which would give the Commonwealth of MA the highest gas tax in the nation. Together we can! Together we can balance the budget on the backs of small businesses that drive trucks and vans to work every day. Let's take more money out of the pockets of plumbers, electricians, dry wallers, and carpenters.

If Deval Patrick has proven anything, it is he is one of the most worthless high profile politician this state has ever elected. In a state that continually elects John Kerry to the U.S. Senate, that's saying something.

Deval Patrick's idea of reform is to trade in the standard Governor's Ford Crown Victoria for a Cadillac, spend over $10,000 on drapes for his Governor's office, larding the state payroll with 2,000 new jobs, including a $70,000 secretary for his wife. Why would Mrs. Patrick, who has a private sector job at a law firm, need a full time secretary to schedule her appearances? Another hire was a Milton neighbor of Patrick's for $120,000 to perform some dubious role.

There's been no reform at the state level and barely any layoffs. We have MA state troopers making $180,000, severe toll increases on the Mass Pike, and no consolidation of agencies. In the private sector, employees are getting laid off every day, while watching the value of their 401K's dip in value. It's a bloodbath for those not on the state payroll. For those who work for the Commonwealth at Massachusetts, it is business as usual. There are guaranteed pensions, and terrific health benefit plans.

Due to Patrick's gross mismanagement of the state budget, cities and towns across the state are suffering to balance their budgets because of local aid cuts that are trickled down from the state. Class sizes are increasing due to teacher layoffs and local public safety efforts are being decreased because police and fire fighters are losing their jobs.

So together we can: vote this bum out of office in 2010.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Baseball is back!

It is that time of year again! Spring training is here and the Boys of Summer are in Florida or Arizona, gearing up for another 162 game season. Every spring training brings the same stories: the young ballplayer trying to make an impact and earn a spot on the big league squad, the minor league veteran desperate to hang on for one more year, and the key player trying to work his way back from an injury.

The Boston Red Sox pitchers and catchers have reported for another camp in Ft. Myers, FL. Here are some answers and thoughts to five questions the team faces this spring training:

1.) Can Jason Varitek catch Tim Wakefield’s knuckeball?

Who cares? Why is so much stock put into two older ballplayers who rank as approximately the 23rd and 24th best players on the 25 man roster? Why worry about a 37 year old catcher and a 43 year old pitcher? If they can’t cut it, release them.

2.) What kind of shape will David Ortiz be in?

Last year, Papi came into camp coming off knee surgery. This year, the big question is what kind of shape will he be in and how healthy is his wrist? With the departure of Manny Ramirez last July, more pressure is on Ortiz to produce than ever before. Ortiz is listed as 33 years old, but is that for real, or is he actually 3 or 4 years older? The Red Sox need him to be in the best shape of his career and for that midsection of his to be a little less flabby.

3.) What will happen when Mike Lowell tries to run?

I heard Lou Merloni on Comcast Sports Net say that Lowell hasn’t even tried to run, after having surgery on his hip a few months back. Lowell is a key offensive contributor and his absence for the ALCS last season really hurt. Lowell is a quality and classy ballplayer, whom every Sox fan loves and is rooting for him to come back and be the 2007player who was the World Series MVP.

4.) How will Clay Buchholz react with the fresh start of a new season?

Last year was an unequivocal disaster for the highly talented young pitcher. The team made a mistake in tinkering with his delivery and he looked lost all year. He had no confidence on the mound. Despite being terrible last spring training, he was given a spot in the rotation, instead of having to earn it. This year, he’ll likely start in Pawtucket and will have to earn his way back to The Show.

5.) What is the strength of the team?

Easy one – it is the bullpen. GM Theo Epstein spent the offseason stockpiling quality arms, such as Saito and Ramirez, to augment the setup crew of Delcarmen, Okajima, and Masterson. Jonathan Papelbon is one of the top five closers in baseball. If the Red Sox can shorten the game by carrying leads into the 6th inning, it will be lights out for opponents, the vast majority of the time.